Ferrous prices may have hit bottom, while aluminum sends mixed signals

We are halfway through 2024 and the recycled ferrous industry could be looking at steadier prices in the near future, while the aluminum market is sending some mixed signals.

Ferrous scrap may have finally reached a bottom in July after falling, or at best, landing sideways, since January.

In fact, Steel Dynamics (SDI), which owns recycled metals giant Omnisource, said last week it expects prices to steady for the rest of the year.

“We believe ferrous scrap prices have stabilized and should remain relatively stable through the rest of the year subject to seasonal moves,” said Barry Schneider, president and COO, during the Fort Wayne, Indiana-based company’s second-quarter earnings call. “The North American geographic footprint of our metals recycling platform provides a strategic competitive advantage for our steel mills and for our scrap generating customers.”

Mills in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region have had to increase their busheling prices by $20/gt compared to June after attempting to buy down $20/gt last week when the July market was forming.

Brazilian pig iron producers see a possible small improvement for pig iron prices on their next sales to the U.S. The next shipments will be available in September.

Export scrap prices to Turkey from Northern Europe have increased by $3-$5/mt on the two most recent sales to match the latest sales from the U.S., despite having fewer freight costs.

SDI and Pittsburgh-based aluminum maker Alcoa helped kick off earnings season, with Alcoa reporting a net profit of $20 million in the second quarter, even after accounting for a $197 million charge on closure of the Kwinana alumina refinery in Perth, Western Australia.

As RMU noted last week, it’s a seller’s market and the theme lately for nonferrous scrap buyers seems to be: If you have a load, name your price.

Looking ahead, more companies are expected to report earnings this week, including West Virginia aluminum supplier Constellium, steelmaker Nucor, and Cleveland Cliffs, the steel manufacturer who recently acquired Canadian steel company Stelco.

In discussing the deal last week, Cleveland Cliffs was originally in the race to acquire U.S. Steel. Ultimately, a low-ball offer removed them from the bidding war to secure U.S. Steel for itself. Cleveland Cliffs shifted their focus to acquire Stelco and noted the support of the United Steelworkers for its acquisition, as reported by RMU’s sister publication, Steel Market Update.

“The international president of the USW, Dave McCall, fully supports this (Stelco) deal. And for abundance of clarity, Dave McCall does not support any other deal in our space,” Lourenco Goncalves, Cleveland Cliffs’ chairman, president, and CEO, said.

Stay tuned for more as we share what companies are saying about Q2 and the rest of the year.