Market
September 24, 2024
Q4 ferrous recycled metal prices may rebound
Written by Stephen Miller
As we approach Q4 2024, we have seen consistent downward movement for scrap and pig iron prices basically all year. The fourth quarter may have some relief for both trade industries. With the fall and winter months on the horizon, the ferrous raw materials sector prices usually start to rise. The seasonal prices on ferrous scrap lead the way. Pig iron prices are partially decoupled from scrap, but not totally. Although we are looking at a flat scrap market in October, the holiday months which follow should see significant increases, as happened last year.
The export market over the last several weeks has stabilized. Despite significant drops in the Turkish buying prices in mid-August, the prices have recovered to $370/mt ex USEC for HMS 80/20 and have stayed in this range. European prices have mirrored the U.S. price less the freight difference. The IREPAS meeting last week did not offer any scrap pricing relief to Turkish buyers.
To follow up on the RMU coverage of the pig iron market, there have been no new deals since our last report. The International Iron Metallics Association’s (IIMA) semi-annual meeting takes Sept 23-25 in Houston, Texas. There will be meetings between suppliers and consumers which could determine the direction of pig iron prices. The issues facing the trade are:
- Scrap pricing in the U.S. market for Q4
- Demand in Europe for Q4 and Q1 since the Russian quota has been exhausted
- The availability of pig iron from exporting countries other than Brazil and Russia
- Other logistical and climate conditions in exporting countries.
RMU will attend this meeting and will report on any market changing developments on scrap, pig iron and HBI/DRI.
