Aluminum - UBC (Aluminum Cans) 2 (1)

Supply chain disruptions and interest rate predictions shake markets

Written by Gabriella Vagnini

In the aluminum market, prices have rebounded from a dip towards $2298/mt to levels around $2370/mt for LME 3m. May Comex copper is currently sitting at 4.0790, marking a decline from its mid-March rally. However, it maintains a position above the 3.80’s seen earlier in the month. Despite these developments, spreads appear to have remained unchanged this week.

On a rumored note, we’ve heard that Kataman Metals may have been sold to Korean Zinc for $55 million, assuming Kataman’s $200 million debt. If true, this sale is quite unexpected news.

Recent events, such as the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse, have caused disruptions in supply chains, leading to what’s estimated to be the largest marine insurance payout in history. The path to recovery will be lengthy, and the full impact of the port disruptions is still unfolding, potentially influencing various segments of the aluminum market.

Additionally, recent reports show a drop in March consumer confidence, attributed to persistent inflation and heightened anxiety surrounding the upcoming election. However, Q4 GDP estimates for the U.S. show growth at an annual rate of 3.4%, surpassing previous estimates. Friday’s release of the February PCE index was in line with analyst expectations. This all plays a significant role in determining expectations regarding potential interest rate adjustments. Leading us to believe that again there will be no change to interest rates for meeting number three of 2024, April 30th-May 1st.

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