Exploring copper market dynamics: Insights from industry expert Edward Meir

I had the honor of interviewing Edward Meir, a renowned figure in the metals industry with a track record in price forecasting within the LME base metals space. As the founder of the Connecticut-based Commodity Research Group and a consultant for the New York-based brokerage firm Marex, Meir’s insights are highly sought after in the industry. He has been in the business for more than three decades.

Our discussion dived into the intricate dynamics of the copper market, shedding light on supply and demand imbalances and mining disruptions.

Key Points Discussed:

Copper market dynamics and mining capacity in North America:

Globally, the copper market is grappling with tightness due to supply disruptions and lowered production guidance.

Meir emphasized the tightness in the mining sector, citing disruptions such as the closure of First Quantum’s Cobre Panama mine and lowered guidance from Anglo American.

When questioned about the supply and demand situation, Meir predicted that the copper market would eventually find balance, with the mining and refined sides converging.

Copper demand, supply and market trends:

Meir provided insights into market developments in the Middle East and the U.S., including rate cuts and their potential impact on the stock market and commodities. Notably, copper demand is poised to surge significantly due to electrification efforts, estimated to rise by 1.2 billion tons by 2050, according to analysts. Total consumption throughout history was about 670 million tons, according to industry analysts.

Meir also forecasted that advancements in battery technology would revolutionize the energy market, potentially reducing the need for certain metals in electric vehicles.