Week in Review: Global steel glut, aluminum volatility and more

This week in metals saw notable shifts across recycled metals and base metal markets. Lewis Leibowitz highlighted ongoing consolidation in the recycled metals market, pointing to Chinese steel exports as a key pressure point in global scrap prices. He emphasized that China’s steel overcapacity is flooding international markets, leading to lower prices and undercutting traditional scrap demand, including in the U.S.

Steve Miller reported on pig iron prices, noting a softening market, although it seems to have bottomed out. While Brazilian producers sought price hikes, competitive offers from India have helped U.S. buyers secure better deals. Miller also provided updates on the U.S. ferrous scrap market, where prices increased by $20/gt as industrial scrap generation slows and inventories remain solid.

Alan Price and John Allen Riggins discussed global steel overcapacity, particularly focusing on China’s ongoing production ramp-up, which is reminiscent of the 2016 steel crisis. This glut is impacting markets globally, including the U.S., where Chinese steel is being imported indirectly through Mexico and the Dominican Republic to bypass tariffs.

In the aluminum market, prices rose on Wednesday after dropping $100/mt earlier this week, causing disruptions for traders. The strong U.S. dollar causing instability in futures and the rising costs of raw materials like bauxite and alumina, are adding to the volatility this month. Despite these challenges, Novelis made headlines with a new three-year deal with TSR Recycling to supply 75,000 metric tons of end-of-life aluminum to its recycling center in Germany.

Economic highlights

U.S. leading economic indicators	Monday, Oct. 21	10:00 a.m. Eastern
Existing home sales	Wednesday, Oct. 23	10:00 a.m. Eastern
Initial jobless claims	Thursday, Oct. 24	8:30 a.m. Eastern
S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI	Thursday, Oct. 24	9:45 a.m. Eastern
New home sales	Thursday, Oct. 24	10:00 a.m. Eastern
Durable goods orders	Friday, Oct. 25	8:30 a.m. Eastern
Consumer sentiment (final)	Friday, Oct. 25	10:00 a.m. Eastern